Table of Contents : Processo Vol 9...Pages 2224-2234— "Madeleine McCann Search Decision Support Document (in English) by Mark Harrison 2007.07.23"
Processo Volume 9...Pages 2224-2234
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National Policing Improvement Agency
Wyboston Lakes, Great North Road,
Wybmion, Bedfordshire,
MK44 3BY,
United Kingdom.
Tel: +44 (0)87XX XXXXXX
Web:
http://www.npia.police.ukMark Harrison MBE
National Search Adviser
Homicide, Missing Persons, Mass Fatality Disasters
Email:
markha&n@npia.pnn.police.ukDlrect dlal: +44797XXXXXXX
23/07/2007
Madeleine McCann Search Decision Support Document
The reconnaissance undertaken and this report has been completed at the direct request and benefit of Guillhemino Encamacao the Algarve Regional Director of the Portuguese Judicial Police
Personal Profile
I am the National Adviser in relation to Search for all Police agencies within the United Kingdom for Missing persons, Abduction and Homicide. My role involves advising on searching for persons that are missing, abducted or murdered, using enhanced search techniques and technologies. I attend and review cases providing advice and support on search plans, strategies and resources. I have extensive national and international experience in such casework. I am a visiting Professor of Earth and Ocean Sciences at the University of Southampton.
In compiling this report I have driven and walked around the relevant areas of Praia Da Luz during the hours of darkness and then during daylight hours. I have conducted reconnaissance flights using the Civil defence helicopter. Consultation has been made with various colleagues and subject matter experts in the development of this report.
This report considers solely the possibility that Madeleine McCann has been murdered and her body is concealed within the areas previously searched by Police in Zone 1 around Praia Da Luz. Other scenarios or possibilities may on request be considered and be subject of a further report. I also make comment on the recent claims made by a Mr Krugel as to the whereabouts of the missing child.
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Initial Action
On Friday 20.07.2007 a request was made by the Portuguese Judicial Police to the NPIA for search advisory assistance. As a result of this the following terms of reference were produced.
Terms of reference to provide assistance to the Portuguese Judicial Police.
1. Assist the Judicial Police and GNR in assessing new or previous areas searched and give opinion on the best methods and assets to provide assurance as to the absence or presence of M McCann's concealed remains.
2. Act as a "critical friend" to the officer in charge of search planning and management and offer immediate and enduring peer review until case resolution or search suspension.
3. Assist in the development of framework models such as scenario based searching to aid homicide disposal searching.
4. Consider further opportunities or areas for search in order to locate M McCann as applicable to the latest intelligence and inform tion provided.
5. Where appropriate, provide independent and impartial advice on the enabling and disabling factors of specialist resources available either within Portugal or elsewhere in body detection.
6. To assist in decision support where requested by testing and challenging claims made by persons offering unorthodox search methods or devices to aid locating M McCann.
7. Where appropriate and requested, assist in advising on procedures to procure any non Portuguese specialist assets that are deemed to be relevant and useful.
Mr Krugel's Claims Regardlng the Location of Madeleine McCann
A Mr Krugel, at the McCann's request, attended Praia Da Luz last week from South Africa alleging he could assist in locating Madeleine McCann. I have spoken with the Police officers that accompanied him and viewed the documentation Krugel has supplied to the PJ.
The limiting factor in coming to a view is that Krugel did not allow anyone to view the handheld device he had with him or observe him using it. He was unable to provide any validating scientific data or documents to support the claims he made or the device he alleged to have with him.
In short he would appear to claim he has uniquely developed a handheld device that can find a missing person alive or dead in any given terrain over any elapsed time period.
In debriefing the officers who accompanied Krugel it is possible to hypothesise what he may have been doing and using.
In consultation with a colleague Dr Wolfram Meier-Augenstein we feel he may have been attempting to give the impression he had developed and was using
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a "Remote Laser based gas sensing device". However his claims regarding the distance of detection, up to 20km and the use of a hair sample are highly unlikely and would be a great innovation in the scientific world. Further provenance of this technique could be sought from Prof. Miles Padgett who is a Professor of optics in physics at the University of Glasgow (m.
padgett@phvsics.nla.ac.uk tel +44 141 XXXXXXX)
One obvious challenge to the claims of the device capability is that if Krugel claims that by taking 3 separate location readings he is able to triangulate to an area then one would assume that as an area was identified further reading and triangulation inside that area could be conducted repeatedly until an "X marked the spot”
.
Of most concern is the poor quality of his report which merely shows a google earth image of an area to the east of Praia Da Luz and includes open scrub land, beach and sea. As Krugel was not prepared to allow the device to be viewed or provide any specification data of readings or equipment and the fact that no known device currently exists commercially or academically then I can only conclude that the information he has provided is likely to be of low value.
GNR Searches Conducted wlthln 7 days of Madeleine McCann's Disappearance.
On Saturday 21.07.2007 I met with Major Luis Seqeuira, GNR Portimao who was the search coordinator for all search activity that was under taken in the physical search for Madeleine McCann.
Major Seqeuira has not benefited from any formal training or accreditation in the management of searching for missing persons. The search officers with the exception of the search and rescue team dispatched from Lisbon had not benefited from any formal training in search procedures. The teams available and deployed by Major Seqeuira were drawn from unit of the GNR, Civil Protection, Fire Brigade, Red Cross and Urban Police. Each team numbered
around 10 and between 80 to 100 personnel were involved in search activity.
The searches were based on a strategy of searching in "rescue and recovery mode” to locate the missing girl alive or if dead, not as a victim of crime. This search phase lasted for 7 days from the date M McCann went missing.
The search was split into 3 zones radiating out from Praia Da Luz in a northward direction. The first zone extended 3km to the EN125 road at Espiche. Wíthin this zone, sectors were drawn using the natural boundaries that exist and included the entire village. Officers were briefed and debriefed before and after deployments and records of activity collected. Each sector was repeatedly searched on 3 separate occasions over the 7 days using ofíicers conducting line searches and supported by air scenting dogs.
The next Zone 2 was extended out to a radius of 7km to the boundary of the N120 road at Bensafrim. As the sectors were larger and in order to support the line searches 2 GNR officers on motorcycles and 6 GNR officers on horse
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-back were deployed. These sectors were all searched on 2 separate occasions over the 7 day period.
The outer zone 3 was extended to 15km at Barragem de Odiaxere a dammed lake. This zone is in a mountainous region subject to flash forest fires.
Therefore Fire officers who routinely patrol and have local knowledge of the area were tasked to drive the tracks, visit empty properties to look for the missing girl. Additionally the fire brigade used a boat to visually inspect the suríace water of the lake.
Re Visiting Previousiy Searched Areas.
In considering the two scenarios that Madeleine McCann has been murdered and her body disposed of by a person on foot or in a vehicle, I have reflected on the areas within zone 1 that have been previously searched or subject to forensic examination.
Mark Warner Creche at Praia Da Luz.
This is the location of the last confirmed sighting by a person independent of family members of Madeleine McCann. Although this location was within the original search area it may well benefit from a further search using enhanced detecting methods for human remains. This will depend on the size of any outside grounds and concealed areas inside the building.
McCann's Apartment.
The apartment in which the McCann's had stayed may present further
opportunities to search. The use of a specialist EVRD (Enhanced Victim
Recovery Dog) and CSI dog (human blood detecting dog) could potentially indicate on whether Madeline's blood is in the property or the scent of a dead body is present. In relation to the dead body scent if such a scent is indicated by the EVRD and no body is located it may suggest that a body has been in the property but removed. This search process could be repeated in all the apartments that were occupied by the friends holidaying with the McCann's.
Murat's House and Garden.
The property has been forensically examined to recover any surface trace evidence however the house and gardens may benefit from a fully invasive specialist search to preclude the presence of Madeleine McCann.
A method previously employed on similar cases has been to use the below assets.
Deploy the EVRD to search the house and garden to ensure Madeleine McCann's remains are not present. The dog may also indicate if a body has been stored in the recent past and then moved off the property, though this is not evidential merely intelligence.
Deploy the CSI dog to search the house to locate any human blood.
This will act in support of the forensic examination already completed.
An inhibiting factor will be on areas where Luminol has been used.
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Deploy geophysical instruments in the house and garden to detect any burial of a body or concealment in voids.
These specialists should be supported by physical search teams exploring and accessing all areas where concealment of a child's body could be made typically 0.5m.
Murat's Vehicles.
All vehicles Murat has had access to have been forensically examined to recover any surface trace evidence however they may all benefit from a full search by the EVRD and CSI dogs. They may be able to detect whether a dead body has been transported in one of the vehicles for intelligence purposes or detect human blood deposits that can be recovered and
examined in a laboratory for Madeleine McCann's blood.
Open Area to East of Praia Da Luz.
This open area between the village urban limits and the Boavista golf club to the east and includes a plateau on which sits a trig point and mobile phone mast.
This area has been previously searched by officers and dogs walking through the area to check for Madeleine McCann's visible remains. However considering the new scenario of Homicide and concealed deposition this area affords many opportunities to dispose of a body. Within this area there are old empty properties, wells, thick vegetation, pockets of soft sand and natural fissures in the cliffs. Whilst there is no intelligence she is buried or concealed in this land it would be a natural place an offender may choose dose to the Village using the least effort principle. A proportionate response may therefore be considered to conduct a search of this area using a team of Victim Recovery Dogs (VRD) that are specifically trained to located concealed human remains.
Prior to undertaking this task it would be beneficial to consult with a Forensic Anthropologist with knowledge of this region of Portugal to give opinion as to the likely state of any remains to be found. Further research could also be conducted with regards to the natural scavenging predators in the area.
An inhibiting factor is that since the disappearance of the child an old empty house adjacent to the Trig Point on the Rocha Negra has been demolished and all rubble removed, If she was concealed within this property the search would be unlikely to detect her now.
Praia Da Luz Beach and Shoreline.
The beach and shoreline are bounded by high cliffs and shallow waters. The beach has fine granular sand and provides easy digging. However the beach is extensively used by tourists and locals and afíords minimal areas of cover from view for concealment. It may be considered appropriate to use the VRD dog team supported by geophysical GPR to sweep the beach. This would be
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a considerable time and cost undertaking and should be weighed in the absence of specific intelligence.
Search Duration.
If all the described assets were deployed it would be likely all assets would complete their searches within one week.
Costs.
Currently only costs for the EVRD and CSI are available.
The daily rate for this dog team is 1000 Euros. Flight travel costs for handler and dogs could be 2750 Euros. Veterinary costs: U.K. and Portugal to comply with Pet Passports scheme 450 Euros. Accommodation, subsistence and vehicle transportation would incur extra charge.
Costs for a VRD dog team to conduct the open area search are not available at the time of writing. Such a team could be sourced from several countries within Europe or USA that have this capability including the UK. However the UK is limited to those teams whose dogs have "pet passports" due to UK quarantine restrictions.
Costs for a geophysical search team to conduct the search of Murat's house and garden are not available at the time of writing. These could be sourced from a commercial surveying company, a university or military within Portugal. Alternatively enquires could be made within the UK.
Ofíshore.
The sea in general circumstances would be immediately attractive to an offender as an easy way of body disposal and so must be considered.
The searches of the coastline was conducted by the Maritime Police and Coastguard. They searched the sea for any body buoyant on the surface and checked the coves and caves.
It could be considered appropriate to conduct research into the tidal flows and movement of the sea in this region and hypothesise where a body may travel if entered at certain points. It has been observed the depth of the sea appears shallow at the relevant area of coastline and this may become an inhibiting factor for any offender wishing to dispose of a body in it.
Overall Summary.
This report has highlighted the extensive and professional efforts made by the Portuguese authorities regarding the search to locate Madeleine McCann alive. It has now begun to consider further opportunities to re search locations in order to address the possibility that she has been murdered and concealed nearby. This would be a proportionate and appropriate response given the elapsed time since her disappearance and previous experience in such similar cases. Should the investigators wish to discuss and develop the issues raised
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in this initial assessment I would be happy to do so. Should further advisory “in country” support be required of the National Search Advisor following this initial assessment phase formal approval must be sought from the NPIA.
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APPENDIX VICTIM RECOVERY DOGS & GPR
This section describes the training and abilities of victim recovery dogs (VRD), the enhanced victim recovery dog (EVRD) and Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR).
VICTIM RECOVERY DOGS
Search Asset Profile
Victim recovery dogs (VRDs) are also known as body or cadaver dogs. They are used in many countries to assist the police in locating concealed human remains. In the UK, police dogs are used that are trained and licensed to a national standard.
Pig carcasses are used to train the dogs in the UK as it is not legal to use human cadavers. This is an established training method and enables the dogs to successfully detect human remains in operational case work.
Enhanced tralning to produce a EVRD.
The training of a VRD provides an alert response using Ivan Pavlov's theory of producing a conditioned reflex, in this case barking, to the presence of detected decomposing human/pig flesh, bone, body fluid and blood. The dog will bark, whether or not it is able to get to the source of the scent. The benefit of this reflex is that the dog will respond whenever the target scent is present.
This enables the dog to be used in an investigative role, assisting experts in other fields, such as, geophysics.
An EVRD dog received additional training on human cadavers which were buried on land and submerged underwater. This took place in America and facilitated by the FBI at the University of Tennessee.
The scent detection threshold of the dog is greatly enhanced. In operational deployment and in training, the dog is successful in detecting human remains, body fluids and blood, to cellular levels that can be recovered by low copy
analysis at forensic laboratories.
The proven capability of the EVRD is to :
Search to locate very small samples of human remains, body fluids and blood in any environment or terrain.
Identify sub-surface depositions to a depth of approximately one metre below the surface of the ground, depending on the scent permeability of the ground.
This depth is increased substantially when the ground is 'vented' prior to deployment.
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Locate and give an alert to cross contamination by a cadaver. This is particularly valuable when the dog is used to assist in searches where the discovery of a body has prompted the investigation. The dog may locate secondary deposition sites and any areas of contamination, e.g., items of vehicles used to transport the body.
The generation, storage and migration of natural gases and body scent.
Gases from decomposing human remains may be dissolved in groundwater depending on the pressure, temperature or concentration of other gases or minerals in water. Dissolved gases may be advected by groundwater, and only when the pressure is reduced and the solubility limit of the gas in groundwater exceeded, do they come out of solution and form a separate gaseous phase.
'Scent', (cocktail mixtures of gases), from organic decaying remains can move through bedrock by diffusion, which is relatively slow, but if the bedrock is fractured, (eg, by bedding planes, joints and faults), the difíusion rate is increased. Gas and scent from organic decaying remains also migrate through rocks via intergranular permeability or, more particularly, along discontinuities. The hydrostatic head imposed by groundwater flows may also influence gas/organic scent emissions.
Determination of the migration pathway of gas/body scent depends on the geological, geomorphological and hydrogeological conditions and an understanding of the victim deposition site. Factors such as the suríace and
groundwater flow paths, drainage, topography, runoff, precipitation rates, permeability of the soil and bedrock and hydrogeological domains, location of seeps and springs need to be determined if gases/human remains migration
pathways are to be determined.
The age of the source does not affect the process of scent movement but it will effect the concentration, as will the rate of decomposition. Body scent may be transported by 'leachate plumes' to emerge at the ground surface.
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Figure 61 : Schematic illustration to show the influence of groundwater flows and the migration of body scent, which may be carried away from the grave site, as a lecahate plume, to emerge on the flanks.
(Note (by me) : Diagram and explanatory indicators shown here but I cannot capture it as a screenshot)
Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR)
This consists of a radar antenna transmitting electromagnetic energy in pulse form at frequencies between 25 MHz and 1 GHz. The pulses are partially reflected by the sub-surface geological structures, picked up by a receiving antenna and plotted as a continuous two-way travel time record, which is displayed as a pseudo-geological record section. The vertical depth scale of this section can be calibrated from the measured two-way travel times of the reflected events either by the use of the appropriate velocity values of electromagnetic pulse through the ground.
The depth of penetration achieved by the radar pulse is a function of both it's frequency and the conductivity of the ground.
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The equipment benefits in use by detecting anomalies in the ground and is particularly effective through sand and concrete. However it is limited in undulating terrain or areas where it is an anomaly rich environment such as a
wooded area.
This equipment whilst readily available in the Commercial Surveying Industry and University Geophysics Departments requires expert interpretation of the imagery for grave detection.
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